Five Crises
Why we need the Office of Crisis Identification now more than ever.
People only see what they are prepared to see.”
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
In January of this year, I wrote a Substack essay suggesting that President Trump should create a new department in The White House: The Office of Crisis Identification. Alas, no office, but the urgency remains. The list of potential crises – ones that are subterranean - continues to grow, although a few of them are nudging the surface and may be towering above us sooner than we expect. If I were assembling the crew of creative yet slightly paranoid White House staffers, these are the areas I’d suggest exploring:
- Divisions in Europe. The war between Russia and Ukraine is bad enough, but Western Europe is likely to see mass deportations of Muslims, civil war, and even partitions of non-Muslim and Muslim territories within a few years, if not sooner. Unchecked immigration has brought in millions of people who disdain democracy and human rights. Unless the situation is corrected, some of the most repressive characteristics of the Middle East will be imposed on European civilization.
- An attack on the American power grid. An attempted attack is so likely that it can almost be regarded as a given. A successful attack would leave large segments of the nation without electricity and water supplies. The perpetrators could range from North Korea and Iran on down to the Mexican drug cartels.
- Water shortages. The states along the Colorado River tend to be most sensitive to this issue, but even among them there can be a certain boosterism that encourages neglect and indifference. Compare Arizona’s water conservation efforts to California’s and you see far greater sensitivity in the desert state versus the coastal one. Neglect could produce water rationing and limited growth.
- A need to staff the trades. More people are leaving the trades than are entering them. Elementary school classes in industrial arts were largely dropped years ago due to an unwise desire that everyone get a college diploma. Establishing trade schools needs to be a national priority. It will particularly benefit one of the nation’s most neglected groups: young men who do not want to get a college diploma but who wish to acquire a skill that allows them to provide for their families.
- A movement to strengthen genuine, not faux, relationships. In a world where Facebook “friends” provide a weak substitute for real friends and where the decline in clubs means more people bowl alone, social media usage facilitates the decline of personal connections and communities. Years ago, the Chautauqua Movement strengthened individuals and communities by conducting adult education programs in rural areas. A new national version could help to combat loneliness, strengthen social skills, and increase civic awareness.
That’s a rather modest list at a time when the university system is about to go through revolutionary change, the high schools are soon to receive similar scrutiny, and artificial intelligence is on the verge of eliminating many jobs that once were thought to be permanent.
Make your list and, if you get a chance, please send me your thoughts.